Exit Poll Predicts U.K. Will Remain in European Union

Bramshill News

By Amey Stone

While there are no major media outlets in the United Kingdom that conducted exit polls, the website YouGov published a poll at 5 p.m. ET that gives 52% of the vote to the remain camp and 48% to exit.

YouGov surveyed the same group of people it had asked Wednesday and found more British citizens voted to remain in the European Union than had said they would the day before. Joe Twyman, YouGov’s Head of Political and Social Research, commented:

Based on these results we expect the United Kingdom to continue as a member of the European Union… The results are close and it too early to call it definitively. But these results, along with the recent trends and historical precedent, suggest a Remain victory is the more likely outcome.

Stocks rallied Thursday as investors bet that Brits would elect to stay in the EU. Bonds fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose 6 basis points to close at 1.74%.

Michael Sheldon of Northstar Wealth Partners called it a “squeaker” and predicts that investors will return to focusing on the fundamentals — which aren’t very bullish. He thinks banks will rally short-term, but need higher yields and an improving economic backdrop for it to last.

Art DeGaetano at Bramshill Investments also thinks risk markets could stall after a rally of a few days to a week. He expects the yield curve to steepen as rates rise. He commented:

Post Brexit the next employment report in the 1st week of July could significantly impact interest rates as everyone wants to see if last month’s weak report was just an aberration. Meanwhile, we are sticking to our belief that credit is where you want to be while remaining mindful about downside gap risk on lower quality credit, such as CCC’s and weak B’s.

It will be hours more — potentially until 4 a.m. in the U.K. and 11 p.m. in the U.S., before the actual counts start to come in. The final result probably won’t be known for three hours later, estimates The Telegraph.